Practical Intelligence

July 8th, 2009

I recently read the book “Outliers” by Malcolm Gladwell. In this book, he examines why some people are highly successful, leading a fruitful, productive and impactful lives, while so many more never reach their potential.

He talks about many aspects in details but one of my takeaways of this book is the concept of “practical intelligence”.

Practical intelligence is the ability to say the right thing to the right person at the right time and place, & the ability to do the right thing at the right time and place. This is something that cannot be taught directly but can be cultivated in children by parents by providing the right framework of growth, independence and experiences. The critical events of “saying”, “doing” and “decision making” at various points in your life are also something that is not consciously thought through but just happens due to your innate abilities.

This is more or less related to your street smartness.

US Energy Bill

July 1st, 2009

A very important Climate and Energy Bill got passed in the US House of Representatives last week. This could for the first time ever enable widespread government restrictions on greenhouse gases and help renewable energy become cost competitive with fossil fuels. The bill aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by over 80% by 2050 – this might be just enough to prevent the worst effects of global warming.

This is something the US should have done 20 years back. There has been no significant legislation related to energy management in the US since 1970s when they passed the automobile mileage law.

This is a momentous step forward in the battle against global warming because this will lead to a domino effect of initiatives and activities across the board that can eventually solve the complex problem of global warming. Following are some examples of kind of activities that this can spur:

  • Significant long term investments in energy management technologies and services from many Fortune 500 companies including utilities, automotive, appliances, petroleum, and other industries
  • Technology innovations at many levels and from many R&D labs and academia
  • Explosion of startup companies with innovative technologies and business models
  • Higher levels of easier VC & PE funding

Government regulation is not everything but it is an important early step without which businesses are not able to justify investments required to offer innovative products, services and business models. This is because they are not able to see a clear and long term market for such products and services without regulatory requirements. Three cheers to Obama for making this happen so quickly after taking office.

(This bill is now in Senate; it is not a law yet!; Senate is likely to consider it for voting in fall).

Indian SMB Market

June 29th, 2009

Recently, I attended a conference in which there was a panel discussion on Indian market for IT. One of the panelists was Bharat Goenka, Founder and CEO of Tally – not too many people understand Indian SMB market as much as him. He provided the most eloquent articulation of the Indian SMB market that I have ever heard.

In India,

  • We need to “go and sell” to the SMB businesses
  • The customers need to look & feel the products and services
  • Sales cycle is high touch and long

Whereas in the US,

  • The businesses “come and buy” our products and services
  • The customers are okay to buy online

This is true even for small value sales like a printer or a PC. For software solutions, this is much more true!

Thus, it is very clear that a successful business in India will be the one that can setup low cost / high touch sales process, and can setup an efficient distribution system. This applies to all goods and services including OnDemand software, subscription based software and services, etc. We have seen this being executed well by Tally, Naukri.com, PC companies like Dell & HP, etc.

Need A Young Prime Minister

April 10th, 2009

We need a young and dynamic Prime Minister – it doesn’t matter which party she/he comes from. Political leaders in their late 40s or early 50s can understand the aspirations and challenges of India.
 
How come both our national parties – BJP and Congress – are not thinking along the lines of bringing in a young leader? A Prime Miniter in his mid-70s (like Manmohan Singh) or mid-80s (like L K Advani) is not good enough for India. India deserves better.

Oil prices and margins

December 25th, 2008

The oil price per barrel has moved from $ 65 in Apr 2007 to $ 147 in Jul 2008, and now all the way down to $ 35 in Dec 2008. These are massive fluctuations in short periods of time and this is unprecedented. Such price changes play havoc on many businesses.

Due to a gap in supply and demand in oil over the last few years, many new refineries were being built at significant investments (of billions of dollars). The refining margins were high because of increasing oil prices over the last ~5 years and because of accelerated demand all over the world. But due to rapidly decreasing oil prices now and lowering of demand, refining is no longer a profitable business. Just in last 2 months, at least 20 upcoming refineries – large and small – in the world have either abandoned the expansion plans or put them on hold. The liquidity crunch and the lack of availability of funds from banks has not helped their case either.

The most disconcerting factor in today’s economy is the pace at which changes occur. Wild fluctuations are happening in everything from dip in sales, dip in inventory levels, changes in currency rates, first rise and then fall of commodity prices, etc. 

In such a scenario of quickly changing markets, prices and fortunes, how can any business plan and build capacity?

As far as oil refining business is concerned, a company that can take a 5 year view, that can make large investments for long term returns and that can sustain their investments have a lot to gain because oil prices are bound to turn again and perhaps go up rapidly some day. New capacities take time to build, and hence companies that have existing capacities will benefit during the rise.

Currency time bomb

December 18th, 2008

US Dollar was less than Rs. 39 in Feb 2008. The prediction was that it will touch Rs. 35 in 2-3 years. But due to the global meltdown, dollar has become stronger against most currencies and balance of payment in India has turned negative. Due to these and other factors, US Dollar hit Rs. 50 in late November 2008. This has been a most spectacular fall in rupee against the dollar.

The favorable exchange rate has provided a good cushion for most export oriented industries, especially the IT industry. The profitability and outlook doesn’t look bad at all for the IT industry right now.

As the overall economic outlook stabilizes, there is bound to be increase in dollar flow again into India as foreign direct investments (FDI) into businesses as well as through foreign institutional investors (FII) since the long term growth story of India is likely to remain intact. Even if the economic outlook remains gloomy over the next 12-18 months, rupee is likely to become stronger in the short term and remain strong. There is a good chance the appreciation of the rupee will be as rapid as its fall.

If US Dollar reaches Rs. 42 or lower than that, it will wreak havoc in the IT industry. This is because the profitability will be wiped out and most companies will struggle to manage their costs. Most companies will have to look at implementing some of the toughest measures ever to survive and grow.

Imagining India

December 3rd, 2008

Last Friday, I attended a book launch of Nandan Nilekani’s new book at Crossword bookstore. The book is entitled “Imagining India”.

I have always thought of Nandan as the greatest business leader in IT industry of India, ahead of the likes of Narayana Murthy, Azim Premji, etc. I have heard him in the past and know about him through some people I know who work closely with him. He is an eloquont speaker with an amazing clarity of thought, with ability to understand and explain issues in a variety of fields, whether it is business, economics, psychology, sociology, technology and others.

I just started reading the book. He theorizes that a significant change at national level can happen only when a majority of people first agree on the particular idea of change. For example, just 10 years back, we Indians used to think of population of India as a liability, but now most of us agree that its an asset and we talk about it in terms of human capital. Hence, we think about educating the human capital, providing for them and nurturing them so that we can tap its potential for economic growth. Similarly, there are many such examples of ideas that took shape at grass roots level and changed the political thinking.

Nandan’s objective in this book is to elaborate on a few such ideas that can do our nation good in the medium to long term, kindle a dialog on the same, and hopefully create a domino effect of change from the masses.

One of the things he discussed during his talk was very interesting, and in fact very profound. He said that the India after independence had great visionary leaders but the people of India were quite a bit behind in their maturity and understanding. Whereas now, people of India are way ahead of the leaders in their vision, aspirations and needs. When the political leadership of India starts walking in sync with the people, the next level of growth as well as improvement in quality of life will happen.

I think that this principle applies to leadership in any organization. A good leader has to first understand the level of maturity of the organization, and then operate at a level that can best lead them to its potential.

nineMotion Story, The End, Learnings

November 14th, 2008

We started nineMotion more than two years back. The idea was to capitalize on a fast growing SMB outsourcing market of USA & Europe. Over the first 6 to 9 months, we developed a pretty good online product with key differentiators in connecting buyers and providers of services, helping them manage their offshore engagements, minimize risks, provide collaboration, visibility and many other features. After that, we have been trying to market and sell our offerings mainly in the US over the last 15 to 18 months.  

From our experiences, we realize that we almost need to take a consumer marketing approach to reach our market. This is because our target segment consists of very small businesses, and in order to build a brand recall, we have to spend marketing dollars.

Secondly, an online marketplace is a winner-take-all game. More number of sellers will attract more buyers, and that in turn will attract more sellers – this can become a self propelling growth story but only if we reach a critical mass. There is room for only one player to succeed in the end. For example, there is only one eBay in the product marketplace space although many others have spent billions of dollars over the years trying to emulate eBay. 

Thirdly, the competitive landscape has changed considerably in the last 2 years. Elance has raised a total of $65 Million, Odesk has now raised $35 Million and Microsoft has entered the space. We think that Google will also enter this space very soon. This is now a business of very deep pockets. 

Under the circumstances, we decided that it is better to close the business rather than continue to throw good money after bad money. This decision has nothing to do with the current economic downturn.  

What we could have done differently?

The approach we took was a more or less a big bang approach of addressing the entire market breadth which is pretty big, and the approach was too ambitious. If we had executed better and succeeded, it could have set us on an interesting growth path, but obviously it hasn’t worked. If I were to do this again, I would choose a series of micro markets and try to penetrate them one at a time with deeper domain centric user experience. Even today, there are opportunities of working on such markets, but both I and my co-founder (Bala) have no appetite and energy to work on such opportunities any more.

Key lessons that can apply to other startups

If I were to distill some of the key lessons that can apply to most startup, they would be as follows:

  • Even if the market is huge, it is better to cover it in a step by step manner – a small segment at a time. There are numerous examples of this from the past, but we ended up making the same mistake
  • Make constant incremental progress in penetrating your market over a long period of time – one customer at a time – rather than banking on big bang marketing or PR
  • Try out many different things that are broadly in your defined space in terms of product features, target audience, marketing and sales, etc. You never know what works or what may provide you with a significant leverage
  • Build business for cash flow. There is no substitute for cash generated from the business
  • If you are able to raise capital, raise it as early as possible and as much as possible – doesn’t matter at what cost. This gives you time to try out more approaches and a longer runway before takeoff

Product Mindset Vs. Services Mindset in Information Technology

September 28th, 2008

[This is an article I wrote for next issue of BusinessGyan magazine].

Global market for information technology (IT) software products and services including information technology enabled services (ITES) was $ 1.2 Trillion in Year 2007 and grew at about 7%. IT and ITES revenue share of India including exports and domestic market was $ 52 Billion which is 4.3%. Now, consider this: 98% of exports from India is services and only 2% is products; whereas globally, this ratio is 28% and 72%. Thus, out of an approx. market potential of $ 864 Billion, India is addressing just about $ 1 Billion as of now in IT products.

India arguably has one of the largest talent pool of engineers and technologists (churning out more than 300,000 engineers every year). India also has a vibrant entrepreneurial culture. Over the last 3-4 years, there has been plenty of venture capital and private equity available for talented entrepreneurs with interesting business ideas and models.

Experts have predicted for many years now that India has the potential to produce some world beating companies in IT products. Why are we not seeing any mega success stories in IT products? What is lacking?

One of the primary reasons for this is that, over the last 15 to 18 years, the entire IT industry in India has grown based on “Services Mindset” as against a “Product Mindset”. All the leaders in the IT industry, especially the ones with a lot of experience, have a complete “Services Mindset” wired into their brains and it is difficult to get out of this mindset.

What is “Services Mindset” and what is “Product Mindset”? There are many factors to differentiate between the two, but the simplest way to describe the services mindset is “the business of doing what is told by the customer, and do it well”. The product mindset is “to figure out what the customers want without them saying this directly, and then create products that the customers like”.

There is a significant difference between the two approaches.

Some of the key aspects of a services business are:

  • Customers define the requirements. If the requirements are not clear, right questions need to be asked to elicit clear definition
  • Strong delivery mechanisms consisting of mature systems and processes. Delivery approach and processes are geared towards checking with the customers at every step, getting sign-offs, communicating early and clearly, testing as per client defined metrics, etc.
  • Marketing function is focused towards macro areas of targeted industries and not functional areas; don’t need a large marketing function and marketing budget
  • Strong program management, customer management, crisis management functions
  • Multiple high quality touch points with customer organizations
  • Dedicated Relationship Managers
  • Extremely good fire-fighting capabilities when engagements or relationships go sour
  • Lower capital requirements since there is cash inflow immediately when the services projects start
  • Some of the key aspects of a products company are:

  • A product company needs to develop a keen sense of what the customers want in future by analyzing trends in technology, industry, domain and business processes, and by understanding the gaps in customers’ needs
  • Needs to have an effective product marketing and product strategy function that understands the customer pain points, domain, processes, and clearly defines the product requirements
  • A product addresses a large number of customers (whereas in services, the project requirements address mainly one customer)
  • There has to be a very good synchronous communication between product marketing team and engineering team. Engineering needs to be able to take a “marketing requirements documents” and translate them into software requirements documents (whereas in services, the customers pretty much provide the software requirements documents)
  • A product company has to take a thought leadership in technology trends, usability, optimization of business processes as well as in industry and domain understanding
  • The product quality function has to be able to define the quality requirements of the product like functional aspects, performance, scalability, maintainability, etc., and then execute on these quality requirements
  • Has to have a strong support function
  • Larger budget for marketing and sales is required
  • Larger capital requirements in order to build, market and sell the products; a much longer power to stay in business is necessary since the gestation period of product sales can be very high
  • Can achieve larger profitability
  • Coming back to India based products companies, there aren’t many big successes because of the services mindset of professionals with 15-20 years experience, lack of exposure to the global markets from the marketing and sales standpoint, and because of lack of capital in the past. Investors and entrepreneurs found it easy to build services businesses to create value. Now, there is no longer any value to be created in services.

    The younger generation of entrepreneurs have an opportunity and the right environment to achieve something here. There are many factors that are coming together to create these opportunities. Some of them are follows:

  • Many multi-nationals have setup product development centers in India where they have started complete product development and support, and, as a result, there is now a much wider and deeper understanding of how products are built and marketed
  • Many young entrepreneurs have no exposure to services business
  • There is a huge availability of venture capital and private equity investments. Most of the funds now have IT product businesses as one of their focus areas
  • There is a significant and rapidly growing market for IT products in India which was not the case a few years back. Many startups are focusing in Indian market first so that they can learn, mature the products and even get some good revenue traction. Entire businesses can now be built just for Indian markets – this was not possible a few years back
  • There is a clear move for IT software products to “on demand” or “software as a service (saas)” offerings. This trend is creating new opportunities for many startups as the larger more established players take time to change their strategies. Similarly, there are other trends that is creating exciting opportunities like mobile and telecom VAS products, security products, BPM in SMB sector, etc. etc.
  • I am very optimistic and looking forward to some interesting success stories in the next few years.

    Microsoft Task Market

    June 10th, 2008

    Microsoft has launched www.taskmarket.com, which is an online marketplace for projects and services. This is squarely in the same market space as Elance, Odesk and nineMotion. And they have disrupted the space already by making the service completely free.

    Microsoft has always found it difficult to sell its products to SMBs. Their cost of sales is very high to SMBs, and  their product penetration is minuscule even today compared to their penetration in large enterprises. The likely intention of creating a marketplace targeted to SMBs is to develop a large community of small businesses, consultants and freelancer over 5-10 years, and then cross sell Microsoft products. In the long run, this can be the most efficient way for them to increase their market penetration in SMB segments.

    Google has been working on and improving Google Apps over the last 18 months or so. Their stated objective is to dominate the SMB segments for their IT needs. I will be highly surprised if Google doesn’t launch its own marketplace targeted to SMBs, most probably with another level of disruption. Or Google could acquire one of the existing players like Elance or Odesk or Guru to kickstart its marketplace offering.